Bali Hospitality Intelligence | Monthly Market Signal
- Ross Woods
- 2 days ago
- 2 min read
Data Through: January 2026
Release Date: 21 February 2026
1. Island-Level Signal
Metric | YoY Change |
Occupancy | -9.9% |
ADR | +1.4% |
RevPAR | -8.7% |
Interpretation
Island-wide RevPAR declined -8.7% YoY, driven primarily by broad-based occupancy compression.
ADR remains marginally positive (+1.4%), indicating partial rate defence but insufficient to offset volume softness.
The recovery phase is giving way to a more competitive and differentiated market environment.
Performance outcomes are increasingly corridor-specific rather than systemic.
Volume contraction is now the principal driver of dispersion.
This is no longer a recovery narrative - it is a divergence phase.
2. Locality Divergence (Ranked by RevPAR YoY)
RevPAR YoY (%)
Sanur: -5.8%
Kuta/Legian: -6.7%
Nusa Dua/Tanjung Benoa: -7.6%
Canggu/Seminyak: -14.3%
Ubud: -15.9%
Jimbaran/Pecatu/Ungasan: -21.9%
Observations
Sanur demonstrates relative resilience with the lowest RevPAR contraction.
Jimbaran / Pecatu / Ungasan exhibits the deepest correction, reflecting simultaneous ADR and occupancy pressure.
Ubud shows accelerating volume weakness (-17.3% Occ) despite modest rate support.
Canggu / Seminyak remains under dual compression, consistent with competitive supply intensity.
Kuta / Legian and Nusa Dua show moderated contraction relative to lifestyle-led corridors.
Dispersion across corridors is widening - reinforcing selective pricing power rather than island-wide stability.
3. Chain Scale Pressure Map (Ranked by RevPAR YoY)
RevPAR YoY (%)
Upper Upscale: -7.6%
Luxury: -11.4%
Upper Midscale: -11.5%
Upscale: -13.0%
Independent: -14.2%
Midscale: -20.6%
Economy: -35.1%
Observations
Upper Upscale shows relative resilience compared with lower tiers.
Midscale ADR strength (+8.6%) has not translated into revenue protection, signalling fragile rate defence.
Economy is under severe dual compression (Occ -27.2%, ADR -10.9%).
Luxury ADR softness suggests competitive discounting pressure.
Independent properties continue to exhibit higher volatility than branded scales.
Performance pressure is increasingly concentrated in value-driven segments.
4. Occ vs ADR Structural Positioning
Quadrant interpretation based on current data:
No locality currently sits in the Expansion quadrant.
Jimbaran/Pecatu/Ungasan is firmly positioned in Compression Risk.
Canggu/Seminyak reflects dual contraction dynamics.
Ubud shows limited rate resilience but weakening volume fundamentals.
Sanur remains closest to equilibrium among major corridors.
Kuta/Legian demonstrates moderated volume-led positioning.
The pattern indicates that pricing discipline is increasingly corridor-specific rather than systemic.
5. Structural Interpretation – 24–36 Month Implications
The market is transitioning from post-pandemic expansion toward normalisation.
Volume compression suggests absorption pressure in selected lifestyle corridors.
Rate-led defence without volume recovery may accelerate discounting cycles.
Segments experiencing dual contraction face heightened margin risk in 2025–2026.
Locality dispersion is likely to widen before eventual convergence.
Capital allocation discipline will increasingly differentiate outcomes.
Bali is moving into a divergence phase where corridor positioning, pricing power, and absorption discipline determine performance outcomes.
Source: CoStar, a global provider of real estate data, analytics, and news. & PT Hotel Investment Advisory.
Ross Woods
PT Hotel Investment Advisory Bali, Indonesia
+62 8118481951
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